Belief as the Future-maker

Belief plays a crucial role in shaping the future. When people believe in an idea, they form communities, push for adoption, and make things happen—even when the infrastructure isn’t ready.

A good example is Bitcoin. When Bitcoin first appeared, it didn’t have the infrastructure of a traditional currency. Yet, belief in the idea of decentralised money pushed it forward.

Belief Grows Networks

Belief brings people together, building communities and networks around an idea. In Bitcoin’s case, early adopters believed in a future without banks controlling money. That belief led to the creation of wallets, exchanges, and developer communities—turning a concept into a functioning global network.

Belief Push Adoption

When Tesla introduced its electric cars, the charging network was limited, battery technology was expensive, and infrastructure was lacking. Yet, early adopters believed electric vehicles were the future of transportation. That belief grew into a movement. Buyers supported Tesla even when range anxiety and slow charging were common issues.

Belief as the Future-Maker

When anticipating the future, belief serves as a fundamental catalyst. Whether it’s Bitcoin or electric vehicles, belief builds networks and drives ideas forward, even when the underlying systems are still evolving. It highlights that the future isn’t shaped solely by technology or policies but by the trust people place in new possibilities.

Belief isn’t just about waiting for things to work—it’s about building momentum until they do.

References and Notes

"How does it feel when a trend is coming in?

Usually, there’s a culture that builds around it. Like I mentioned before, when I got into finance, there was Wall Street with Gordon Gekko, books like Barbarians at the Gate, and all these famous moments happening. It became part of the culture, and that’s usually tells you it has now become a trend."

From a video interview of Raoul Pal, The Diary of a CEO

Low-Hanging Fruit: Simple Solutions Drive Change

Identifying the “lowest hanging fruit” offers a practical way to anticipate how trends might unfold.

The simplest solutions—those that are easy to implement and integrate into existing infrastructure—are often quickly adopted across industries. As these ideas spread, they form liquid trends, driven by behaviour and momentum. If these trends continue to gain traction, they crystallise into solid trends that shape the future.

Examples of Low-Hanging Fruit Leading to Future Trends

• QR Codes: Originally used for product marketing, they quickly became the backbone of contactless payments and touchless services during the COVID pandemic. By focusing on this easy implementation, businesses forecasted a future where seamless digital transactions would become the norm.
• Wi-Fi as a Value Add: Initially offered in cafés to attract customers, Wi-Fi evolved into a necessary feature for co-working spaces and digital-first environments. This small step forecasted the possibility of remote work culture.
• Loyalty Cards to Digital Rewards: Businesses adopted loyalty cards as a quick way to encourage repeat customers. As more companies digitised loyalty programs, it revealed a larger shift toward personalised, data-driven marketing.

Low-hanging fruit reveals more than just easy wins—it helps identify patterns of adoption. When multiple businesses act on the same idea, it signals that the trend has momentum. If this momentum sustains, it solidifies into a predictable outcome—what futures thinkers would call a foreseeable trend.

It is a practical, grounded way to engage with futures thinking, turning everyday observation into stepping stones toward understanding and influencing the future.

Macro and Micro Trends: Case studies

A macro trend is a large-scale, long-term shift that affects industries, societies, and economies. These trends evolve over years or even decades and have widespread impact.

A micro trend is a smaller, more localised shift that affects niche markets or specific communities. These trends can emerge and change relatively quickly compared to macro trends.

Here are some of the case studies:

Case Study: Online Learning

• Micro Trend: Initially, online learning platforms were primarily used by tech-savvy individuals or those seeking niche skills outside traditional education systems.
• Macro Trend: The COVID-19 pandemic and advances in digital education tools have propelled online learning into the mainstream, reshaping education systems globally as schools, universities, and businesses adopt digital platforms for a wider range of subjects and learners.

Case Study: Telemedicine

• Micro Trend: Initially, telemedicine was used by a small segment of patients in rural areas or those with limited access to healthcare.
• Macro Trend: As technology advanced and the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for remote healthcare solutions, telemedicine became a key component of healthcare systems worldwide, providing easy access to medical consultations for millions of people.

Case Study: Remote Work

• Micro Trend: In the beginning, remote work was primarily limited to freelancers, digital nomads, and select tech companies offering flexible work arrangements for a small portion of their workforce.
• Macro Trend: With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and advancements in collaboration technologies, remote work has become a global norm, transforming traditional work cultures. Now, hybrid and fully remote work models are embraced across multiple industries, with businesses investing in digital infrastructure to support distributed teams worldwide.

Case Study: Ride-sharing Service

• Micro Trend: Initially, the concept of car-sharing was met with resistance. People were uncomfortable with the idea of sharing a ride with strangers. Early efforts to promote car-sharing services faced cultural and personal barriers, as most individuals preferred the privacy and convenience of having their own ride.
• Macro Trend: With advancements in mobile technology and the rise of apps like Uber and Lyft, car-sharing transformed into a mainstream transportation solution. These platforms provided a seamless and user-friendly experience for booking shared rides, allowing passengers to match with others heading in the same direction. The convenience, cost savings, and environmental benefits of sharing rides became attractive to a broader audience. As a result, the stigma around sharing a car with strangers faded, and shared ride options such as UberPOOL or Lyft Line became part of everyday urban life, reducing traffic congestion and carbon footprints globally.

These examples show how a micro trend in a niche market can grow into a macro trend that influences entire industries and societies over time.

Macro and Micro Trends: Global and Local Insights

In an increasingly complex and interconnected world, navigating the future requires a dual lens of both macro trends and micro trends. Macro trends provide the big picture while micro trends offer nuanced insights at the grassroots level.

Micro trends are frequently identified through direct interaction and observation at the grassroots level. They can emerge from:

• Conversations with Locals: Insights gained from talking to barbers, taxi drivers, or shop owners who interact with a diverse clientele.

• Social Media and Search Trends: Analysing local search trends and social media discussions to detect shifts in interests.
• Community Events: Observing participation and engagement in local events or grassroots movements.

Understanding micro trends enables stakeholders to:

• Capture Emerging Markets: Businesses can tap into new consumer demands before competitors.
• Enhance Cultural Relevance: Marketers can tailor messages that resonate with local values and experiences.
• Inform Rapid Response: Governments and organisations can address immediate community needs or concerns.

Macro trends are typically identified through data collected by institutions such as government agencies, research institutions, and global corporations.

These entities compile extensive datasets on economic indicators, population statistics, environmental metrics, and technological developments.

Example, economic reports from International Monetary Fund (IMF) , demographic studies from United Nations population projections and technological forecasts from institutions like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Recognising macro trends allows stakeholders to:

• Strategise Long-Term Planning: Businesses can align their investments with anticipated global shifts.
• Inform Policy Making: Governments can craft policies that address future challenges like aging populations or climate change.
• Drive Innovation: Understanding technological trends can inspire new products and services that meet emerging needs.

Recognising the difference between macro and micro trends enhances our ability to foresee probable future developments. Enabling us to blend both perspectives to form a well-rounded view of potential outcomes.

Speculative FutureS: Vapour trends

If solid trends are foreseeable trends and liquid trends are malleable trends, then vapour trends can be best described as speculative trends.

Vapour trends are subtle and often hard to detect, typically existing in a nascent form before they either gain momentum and become more concrete (like liquid trends) or fade away without making a lasting impact. These trends represent early-stage developments, full of potential but not yet established.

Vapour trends frequently arise from niche ideas, experimental technologies, or cultural movements that have not yet gained widespread traction. They are speculative by nature, which makes them difficult to predict with certainty. However, under the right conditions, vapour trends can evolve into powerful forces that significantly influence industries or societies.

Examples of Vapour Trends

The Early Days of Cryptocurrency:
When Bitcoin first emerged in 2009, it was a classic example of a vapour trend. The concept of decentralised digital currency was niche and highly speculative, with few people taking it seriously. Early adopters recognised its potential, but to the broader public and financial experts, Bitcoin seemed like a passing fad that would soon evaporate

As we now know, cryptocurrency moved from vapour to liquid and has even solidified in some areas as a legitimate asset class. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have become significant players in finance, with blockchain technology driving innovation across multiple industries. What was once speculative is now a cornerstone in the financial world.

What makes vapour trends both exciting and challenging is their transient nature. These trends are difficult to quantify or predict because they haven't yet reached critical mass. Vapour trends sit at the intersection of innovation and speculation, where new ideas are being tested but haven’t proven their staying power.

• Visibility: Vapour trends often emerge within niche communities or industries and are not immediately visible to the general public. Early adopters and keen observers are typically the first to recognise them.
• Uncertainty: Unlike solid trends, which are almost guaranteed to happen, or liquid trends, which are adaptable yet still follow a recognisable pattern, vapour trends come with a high degree of uncertainty. They may never materialise into anything substantial.

The Transition from Vapour to Liquid

A vapour trend transitions into a liquid trend when it starts to gain momentum and traction.

A good example of this is the early stages of remote work before the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, remote work was considered a vapour trend, practiced by a small, niche group of companies. It hadn’t yet reached mainstream acceptance.

However, when external forces like the pandemic acted as a catalyst, remote work quickly transitioned into a liquid trend, adopted globally by businesses of all sizes. This shift illustrates how vapour trends require the right timing and external conditions to evolve into something more concrete.

Without such catalysts—whether technological, social, or economic—vapour trends may evaporate, never fully realising their potential. But when the conditions align, these speculative trends can condense into powerful movements, reshaping industries and even societies.

For businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals aiming to stay ahead of the curve, recognising vapour trends early can offer a competitive advantage. Spotting these trends requires keen observation and a willingness to take calculated risks. While it is impossible to predict with certainty which vapour trends will evolve into more established movements, being aware of emerging ideas and niche developments helps organisations remain flexible and ready to adapt to new opportunities.

malleable Future: Liquid trends

Solid trends, while stable and predictable, can sometimes transform into liquid trends when certain conditions are right.

Liquid trends, in contrast to solid trends, are less certain and more dynamic, often driven by human behaviour, societal changes, or external forces. These trends are not as fixed or reliable, making them more susceptible to shifts in direction based on evolving circumstances.

A liquid trend is similar to throwing a pebble into water, where you can influence the current and create a ripple effect. Just as the pebble causes waves to spread outward and alter the water’s surface, liquid trends can be shaped by small actions or changes, leading to broader impacts over time. These trends are sensitive to external inputs, allowing individuals or organisations to influence their direction and effect.

One prime example of this shift is the traditional Monday-to-Friday, 9-to-5 workweek.

For decades, this was a solid trend, deeply ingrained in workplace culture across the globe. The structure of office-based work was predictable and followed a steady, linear trajectory, with most employees working in physical offices.

However, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the solid trend of office-based work began to melt into a more fluid state, and remote work emerged as a strong alternative. What was once a fixed, predictable trend of commuting and working in person became a liquid trend driven by the need for flexibility, technology, and public health concerns.

At first glance, remote work might seem like it is becoming a foreseeable future - new solid trend. However, it is still in a liquid phase because its future trajectory depends on multiple external factors, such as technological infrastructure, corporate policies, and societal acceptance.

Remote work is not yet fully solidified, as companies are still experimenting with hybrid models, and it is uncertain whether this trend will become permanent or revert to more traditional structures as external conditions change.

This illustrates how a once-solid trend can transform into a liquid trend. Although liquid trends are malleable, they still exhibit some degree of consistency that can be anticipated and acted upon, though with less certainty. This require constant attention and adjustment, as they can be influenced by choices, innovations, or sudden changes in the environment.

foreseeable Future: Solid trends

Solid trends, much like ice, are stable, predictable, and fixed in nature. These trends represent foreseeable changes that follow a consistent path, such as the aging process, technological advancements, or seasonal cycles.

They are anchored in patterns that have repeated throughout time, making them relatively easy to forecast.

Due to their high level of certainty, solid trends provide a firm foundation for planning and decision-making, offering businesses, individuals and organisations the advantage of aligning long-term strategies with probable outcomes.

Solid trends can be further categorised into two types:

• Linear Solid Trends: These trends move in a single, forward direction, continuously progressing without deviation. An example would be population growth or the increasing demand for energy. These trends follow a steady trajectory that allows us to make future projections with confidence.
  
• Cyclical Solid Trends: These trends are repetitive and predictable, such as economic cycles, fashion trends, or seasonal weather patterns. Though they may fluctuate, they do so within an established rhythm, providing opportunities to anticipate their phases and adjust accordingly.

In both cases, solid trends are grounded in empirical evidence or fundamental laws of nature, making them difficult to shift. Yet, they can offer high probability outcomes, reducing uncertainty and enabling more calculated, proactive responses to change.

By understanding the nature of solid trends, businesses and individuals can gain a strategic edge by positioning themselves to adapt more effectively to the inevitable forces that is shaping the future.

Much like a surfer anticipating the next wave—predictable yet varied, requiring patience and perfect timing to catch.

Different states of trends: solid, liquid, and vapour

Trends, like water, exist in different states: solid, liquid, and vapour. These states reflect varying levels of predictability and adaptability, with transitions between them occurring when conditions are right.

Solid Trends

Solid trends are fixed and predictable, like ice. They represent inevitable changes, such as aging or seasonal cycles, that are hard to shift. These trends offer high probability, making it easier to plan around them.

Liquid Trends

Liquid trends, like water, are adaptable and primarily driven by human nature. People act as the agents of change, influencing the direction of these trends. While liquid trends can shift, they are controllable—human action can guide them. Examples include shifts in consumer behaviour or cultural movements that are shaped by collective human influence.

Vapour Trends

Vapour trends are difficult to notice initially, not because they are entirely invisible, but because they often appear mundane or insignificant, much like mist forming in the air. These trends might seem ordinary or unremarkable at first, but under the right conditions, they can condense into liquid trends and grow into significant movements—such as a niche subculture becoming mainstream. However, they can evaporate just as easily, fading away like a passing fad without lasting impact.

Changing States: Evolving Trends
Trends, like water, can evolve from one state to another—vapour can condense into liquid, and liquid can solidify into ice. Similarly, trends can transition from possible to probable as conditions change.

• Vapour trends, initially elusive, may seem insignificant. However, when the right conditions—such as technological breakthroughs or social acceptance—are met, they can condense into liquid trends, becoming influential and controllable. Being aware of these emerging trends allows us to catch them early, before they fully form, giving us the opportunity to influence their direction or capitalise on them.
• Liquid trends, though adaptable, may solidify into solid trends when enough momentum or stability is reached. Planning for this transition allows businesses and individuals to position themselves strategically, benefiting from the predictability of these now-established movements.

By observing how trends evolve, you can adapt faster and gain an early advantage over those who only respond after the trend is fully developed.

We are all thinking of the same problem

Multiple discovery refers to the phenomenon where multiple individuals or groups independently arrive at the same idea or solution around the same time.

This often occurs because people across the world are exposed to similar challenges. As society evolves and faces global issues, individuals and organisations begin thinking along the same lines. Whether it is driven by technological advancements, economic shifts, or social changes, the right timing and conditions make it likely that different parties will reach similar solutions through a shared perspective.

By understanding the concept of multiple discovery, we can anticipate future challenges and align ourselves with the motivation that drive innovation. This allows us to not only foresee potential problems but also recognise the collective solutions others may be working toward.

For anticipatory leaders, it serves as a useful reminder to identify early signals, seize opportunities, and take action before these ideas become mainstream.

“It’s not uncommon for the idea to find its voice through another maker. This isn’t because the other artist stole your idea, but because the idea’s time has come.” - Rick Robin, The Creative Act: A Way of Being